Astronomers are currently tracking asteroid 2024 YR4, which has the highest impact probability of any asteroid observed in the last 20 years. This space rock, estimated to be between the size of a football field and the Statue of Liberty, has been placed at the top of NASA’s asteroid risk list. The odds of it striking Earth on December 22, 2032, are approximately 1 in 43. While that may seem low, it’s enough to make this asteroid a significant concern.
Increasing Odds – What Does It Mean?
One of the most unusual aspects of 2024 YR4 is that its impact probability has been rising instead of decreasing. As astronomers gather more data, our understanding of its trajectory becomes clearer. Initially, when an asteroid is discovered, its path has a lot of uncertainty. As more observations come in, the estimates become more refined, sometimes increasing the impact probability before additional data reduces it again.
How Was 2024 YR4 Discovered?
On December 27, 2024, astronomers at the ATLAS telescope in Chile spotted a faint moving dot in the night sky. ATLAS is part of a global network designed to detect potential threats to Earth. Since its discovery, telescopes worldwide have been tracking 2024 YR4 closely.
Potential Impact and Consequences
If 2024 YR4 were to hit Earth, it could land anywhere along a broad path, including the Eastern Pacific Ocean, parts of South America, the Atlantic, Africa, and South Asia. The energy released would be comparable to a nuclear explosion, making it a serious concern. However, planetary defense efforts are already in place.
Humanity’s Defense Against Asteroids
In 2022, NASA successfully altered the course of an asteroid by crashing a spacecraft into it at 14,000 mph. This mission, known as DART, demonstrated that we have the capability to change an asteroid’s trajectory. The European Space Agency (ESA) is also working on planetary defense strategies. By 2028, a new space-based telescope, Neo Surveyor, will enhance our ability to detect and track asteroids earlier.
What’s Next for 2024 YR4?
Astronomers will continue tracking the asteroid until April 2025, after which it will be too faint to observe until 2028. During this time, scientists will analyze past data to refine predictions. If previous images of 2024 YR4 can be found, they may help confirm whether Earth is truly at risk.
The Bottom Line
While 2024 YR4 poses the highest asteroid impact risk in decades, history shows that as we gather more data, these probabilities usually decrease. Earth is no longer defenseless against cosmic threats, and ongoing advancements in asteroid tracking and deflection give us more control than ever before. For now, astronomers remain watchful, and the likelihood of impact will likely decrease with further observations. Stay updated with NASA’s Near-Earth Object Program for the latest developments.